It's time to figure next winter. Add $2 per mcf for Duke's distribution charge to February's futures, gives the price if Duke bought futures now at this price, but Duke does not do this (at least a year ago they told me they did not. It's time for another call to them). So it could be higher -- or lower.
Last year on August 8th I projected the upcoming winter and got it about right $11.50. (That's $1.15 per ccf)(total price to customer $/ccf)
So -- it looks like about the same for next winter: $9.03 + $2.00 = $11.03, or $1.10. Yikes, can this be right? It's lower than last winter. So I'm going to fudge, knowing that everybody expects it to be much higher. I'm going to say $1.25. But that's still not the doubling that was implied by prices two months ago.
