Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Which Leads to This Good Blog on the Housing Market

Click on Title for Full Article.

Most Important Conference Call of the Year

Countrywide. Click on Title for full transcript.

Bear Stearns Co. Bonds Trading Like Junk

Bear Stearns 4.00% 01/31/2008's quoted at 99.21 an hour ago. They were at 99.29 June 25, 2007.

Click on Title for full story by Bloomberg.

Cramer Yesterday

As always, Cramer had a valuable show yesterday. He gave the bear's worst view, which he said he doesn't believe. Then he gave a strategy if one did believe it. In the process he gave an analysis of the 1990 banking/market crisis.

Remember, 1990 was just before the tremendous lowering of interest rates which produced the interest rate environment we have had until now -- absolutely fantastic if you bought bonds, real estate, etc. Now the metrics are unwinding of course.

When Cramer says "banks" he means NY Investment Banks. He says his buddies all turned against him. What does that mean? If you listened to him earlier this year you know he was pooh-poohing the crisis and was recommending them. He clearly is of the opposite frame of mind now.

Bottom line: he himself is worried. The above is not to criticize Cramer for "changing his mind." No one knows the magnitude of the present situation, although Cramer says 1990 was "ten times worse" than today.

I keep going back to "experience." It was Marty Zweig who held my hand during the 1987 crash and Marty was Right On, as has been Cramer, in my opinion, post-1987. Bernie Schaeffer, whose office is just a stones throw from my office/home, to my mind, has "always been right," although I have not followed him the past few years.

Where has he been? I get his daily blurbs every day, going back to when he and I were in the Money Show somewhere. But why hasn't CNBC had him on? Did he screw up somewhere along the line?

Canadian Dollar

Click on the Title, for an article in Bloomberg yesterday. I think the article has the decimal point off. Instead of .3 it should be 3%, etc.

Monday, July 30, 2007

US Dollar up 3% vs Canadian Dollar Since July 24

CNBC Programming on Days Like Last Thursday & Friday

I have not followed today's stock market but during a "crash" how I hate the young things who have not lived through 1987 chirping throughout the day.

Cramer is just right.

Rick Santelli is too.

Bill Gross is too.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Power Shortage -- Africa

In today's New York Times. Deregulation caused this. Click on Title.

Friday, July 27, 2007

And Now Some Hot Hair

Keeping your rabbit cool in the summer, and the like. Click on title of this post (above).

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Will Duke Energy etc.

A little more informative...

Will Duke Energy be Nimble Enough to Hedge Part of the Winter at Today's Prices?

Click on title to see their latest filing in Ohio. Meaningless, really, except it leads to whom to call.

Talk Amongst Yourselves2

Conoco Writes Off Venezuela

Click on title to see full story from the Houston Chronicle today.

Talk Amongst Yourselves While I Fix My Computer

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Amaranth Charges Filed

How's that for our timely blog relating to the Amaranth guys.

Oh Canada!

(c) 2007 Rebecca Worple

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Natural Gas Expenditures by State

Table 1
Natural Gas Expenditures, by State, 2005 (in dollars)
State Residential Commercial Industrial Electric
Total Natural
Texas 2,309,343,446 1,675,701,340 11,206,533,687 11,906,058,792 27,097,637,264
California 5,729,738,065 2,488,517,884 7,688,789,158 5,568,487,855 21,475,532,962
New York 5,788,094,146 4,865,906,362 750,887,104 2,809,505,992 14,214,393,603
Louisiana 540,003,684 285,499,763 7,300,853,946 2,605,101,053 10,731,458,445
Illinois 5,084,499,781 2,261,066,718 2,607,965,080 523,428,165 10,476,959,744
Ohio 4,195,065,381 1,945,127,275 3,297,072,028 266,273,565 9,703,538,249
Pennsylvania 3,482,855,525 1,890,415,320 2,087,250,527 830,595,996 8,291,117,369
Michigan 3,783,843,799 1,639,555,304 1,850,311,419 731,364,939 8,005,075,461
New Jersey 3,105,519,379 2,225,130,067 844,390,547 1,235,970,374 7,411,010,367
Florida 324,897,975 766,126,281 598,501,153 5,516,086,660 7,205,612,069
Indiana 1,794,438,281 844,647,722 2,662,697,539 309,890,501 5,611,674,043
Georgia 2,087,172,684 780,510,263 1,561,799,588 790,604,525 5,220,087,059
Massachusetts 1,830,265,680 809,748,252 653,077,306 1,467,888,651 4,760,979,888
Oklahoma 692,653,501 433,337,195 1,379,437,439 2,005,233,633 4,510,661,768
Wisconsin 1,565,400,402 893,577,361 1,293,952,456 514,082,737 4,267,012,956
Colorado 1,278,311,707 582,913,885 1,096,804,062 686,379,860 3,644,409,515

Senate Subcommittee Report on Investigations -- Amaranth

With natural gas down to $6.03 we should review the Amaranth situation of a year ago, already recently reported on by the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations. Click on the Heading to see the full report. My comments which follow will be direct quotes from this Report. Needless to say, it is my opinion that Deregulation caused the gaming which led to this situation. Such potential continues to this day, as nothing has changed. Incidentally, I am impressed with the speed of this investigation. Quite proper in light of the speed of the futures markets themselves.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Futures Falling Toward $6.00 (Down)

This is the near-term month. January futures are $8.20 or so. So retail rates next winter to the residential user could be $10.30, but they won't be that low you can be sure! The gas company would have to hedge its entire January load now to capture this price.

Now a Little Hot Air

And Deregulation Caused This Back in 2001

To quote California Senator Dianne Feinstein January 31, 2001, questioning Sempera, a seller of power into the California market, before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, at its Hearing on the California Electric Shortage:"Explain...why spot power at 3 am in the morning is 500 times higher than it would be normally."

Deregulation Caused This

Here's Krugman's description of how the Wall Street Journal and the telephony lobbyists have caused the US to fall behind the French and Europe in all matters relating to the internet.

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Now a Little Hot Air

from today's NYT:

About GE

Comprehensive NYT article re GE:


Now, years after 9/11, and GE stock has done poorly during that time, this article presents as a "given" that when 9/11 happened it was "clear" that GE would suffer. I certainly thought it would, but saw no discussion of this in GE filings.

But GE, like Enron, was hiding so much (mistakes, who knew) in GE Capital, now GE Money, and never said a word about its liabilities in this regard, at the time.

GE then was One Black Box. It still may be (I haven't tried to study its financials recently) and I would guess it still is.

The above having been said, it was the "dirty little secret" of money managers during the 1980's and 1990's that to do well, just buy and hold a lot of GE. Overweight it.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Weather Futures3

This is self-explanatory.
Weather futures are sensitive to forecast changes. As the May temperature outlook in Cinvinnati (CVG) moved warmer, CME traders pushed up the value from $1,260 to $2,060 in 30 days. The more traditional futures (grains, energy and stock indexes) showed less movement in percentage terms during the time period. All the attention on the rising stock market was based on a 5.4% increase in the DJIA while CVG CCD contracts had a 63.5% rise.
Kind of a nothing blurb. Who are they kidding? It's still a guessing game for the speculator. Now the hedger, that's different.

Canadian Dollar/U.S. Dollar, from 9/11

$1.54 @ 9/11/2001
$1.04 @ 7/20/2007

Long Term Dollar Support is Reached

Not my chart, but useful. I did not draw in the "boing."

Natural Gas Close July 20, 2007

Weather Futures2

counted during the course of that period.

3) If the December Philadelphia contract trades on Dec. 1st at 1025 HDDs, then settles on Dec. 31st at 1080, then the buyer earns $1,100 from the 55 HDD colder outcome.

4) A short seller of May Dallas futures whose entry level is 385 CDDs would make $600 if the end of month total was only 355 CDDs.

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Weather Futures

Each contract is referenced to one of 18 US cities. One HDD or CDD is worth $20. An HDD is 65 degrees F minus a given day's average temperature. A CDD is the day's average temperature minus 65 degrees.
Daily Examples:
1) A day in Kansas City having 14 HDDs is $100 colder" (per contract) than a day with 9 HDDs.
2) If a day in Tuscon averages 90 degrees F then there were 25 CDDs recorded. That day would be "$400 hotter" than a 70 degree F day with only five CDDs.
Monthly Examples:
(Each CME degree day futures contract is based on a specific calendar month, or series of months, and is financially settled according to the cumulative tally of the daily HDDs, or CDDs,

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Better Handle for Next Winter

At the NYMEX, the price of the futures contract for August delivery decreased in three of four trading sessions this week, but posted a net decrease on the week of just 1.8 cents per MMBtu. The contract’s price at the end of trading yesterday was $6.600 per MMBtu, which is 21 percent lower than the August contract high this year (reached in May) of $8.362. All futures contracts through the end of the next heating season also decreased on the week, while the contract prices from April 2008 through July 2008 were slightly higher. As a result, the price of the 12-month strip, or the average price for contracts over the next year, dropped 4.2 cents per MMBtu, or less than 1 percent, to $7.786. The price of the near-month contract is $0.967 per MMBtu higher than last year’s price at this time (on July 11, 2006, the August 2006 contract settled at $5.633 per MMBtu). At this time last year, the difference between the Henry Hub price and the price for the NYMEX contract for delivery the following January (the month that is normally the highest price in the 12-month strip) had widened to $4.51 per MMBtu, a spread that was highly unusual. The corresponding spread this year is still atypically high, but is narrower at $2.07 per MMBtu. Currently, the January 2008 contract is priced at $8.722 per MMBtu.

Congestion Pricing

Today's Friedman:


Sunday, July 8, 2007

The AEP Interconnection Agreement:

This newsletter is always worth reading.


If I'm reading this chart correctly, and I may not be, natural gas for next January is projected to be $2 to $3 lower per mcf compared to January '07.
From that article:

Though many older hotels have ceded the reputation for hip night life to a new generation of boutique hotels, the beds still work fine. You can stay in the Gramercy Park Hotel, which was recently overhauled, or the Beekman Tower, with its top-floor cocktail lounge and view of the (rusting) Queensboro Bridge. Then there's the Waldorf-Astoria, although its famous Starlight Roof, recently restored to something like its former glory, is now open only for special events. (But guests can ask to see it.) And there's always the Algonquin, which in 1957 was already looking back on the Round Table days of the 1920s with nostalgia.
Most of the classic New York museums are right where they were 50 years ago, when modern art was still modern. Other attractions remain, too: the observatory at the top of 30 Rockefeller Plaza, officially called Top of the Rock and reopened in 2005, for example, or take the subway to Coney Island and ride the Cyclone, which turns 80 next year. There's the boardwalk, and Nathan's hot dogs.
And 50 years ago was 1957.


As we approach the fall, and the 20th anniversary of the Crash of 1987, I'll be posting reminders. This does not imply that I think anything is going to happen this fall.

Friday, July 6, 2007

Maybe LNG Will Come in Big Time for the Winter

What a break to a new interim low recently. I haven't studied anything, but am wondering how the upcoming LNG situation is.