Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Cramer Yesterday

As always, Cramer had a valuable show yesterday. He gave the bear's worst view, which he said he doesn't believe. Then he gave a strategy if one did believe it. In the process he gave an analysis of the 1990 banking/market crisis.

Remember, 1990 was just before the tremendous lowering of interest rates which produced the interest rate environment we have had until now -- absolutely fantastic if you bought bonds, real estate, etc. Now the metrics are unwinding of course.

When Cramer says "banks" he means NY Investment Banks. He says his buddies all turned against him. What does that mean? If you listened to him earlier this year you know he was pooh-poohing the crisis and was recommending them. He clearly is of the opposite frame of mind now.

Bottom line: he himself is worried. The above is not to criticize Cramer for "changing his mind." No one knows the magnitude of the present situation, although Cramer says 1990 was "ten times worse" than today.

I keep going back to "experience." It was Marty Zweig who held my hand during the 1987 crash and Marty was Right On, as has been Cramer, in my opinion, post-1987. Bernie Schaeffer, whose office is just a stones throw from my office/home, to my mind, has "always been right," although I have not followed him the past few years.

Where has he been? I get his daily blurbs every day, going back to when he and I were in the Money Show somewhere. But why hasn't CNBC had him on? Did he screw up somewhere along the line?

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