Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Cramer Last Night

This show plus President's speech last night!

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Will the Market Continue...

The age-old question.

The quality of the interviewers and interviewees on CNBC is so much better than in the day.  Pisani is good at the end of the day.  Cramer is always good and when his tone of voice is a certain way, you should do what he's recommending.  His housing call nears this, although if you remember he called the bottom in June of 2010 and was wrong.  He's also not good on natural gas.

El-Erian and Bill Gross are excellent.

Looking at the TV programming at Infiniti while waiting on my car, I realize there are a lot of financial programs other than CNBC.  Same conclusion being in Manila for six weeks recently -- different versions of CNBC, plus Bloomberg.

So Far This Year

So Far This Year

100 FFIV, with selling a January 115 call on same;  $12 unrealized profit

why FFIV? pin-action from Oracle's earnings report

100 American Tower Corp, no hedge:  $392.05 unrealized profit

pin-action from ATT/T Mobile breakup (bought shares in late 2011)

100 Con Ed recently rebought; will sell today: $225.95 unrealized loss
the utility trade is over for the New Year

1 long AAPL February $400 call; 1 short $425 call: unrealized profit $106

a call spread on AAPL is a safe way to bet on AAPL, until it's not

1000 shares AA (Alcoa): $75 unrealized loss

China is shutting down smelters to use the electricity (90% of aluminum is electricity); Alcoa is doing the same; yet the demand for aluminum will remain strong, especially in the US

small realized loss on put spread on GLD:  $25
was going the wrong way on this

Monday, January 9, 2012

The New Year

(c) 2012 F. Bruce Abel

Having lost $11,000 in my trading account in 2011, I feel like a new year gives a blank sheet with ample room for New Year's Resolutions.  As in the past I am reluctant to mess it up.  So far my positions are hedged to some or all extent.  So the daily change in value is small.  Plus, being in Manila so long, I am not at all as rabid about following CNBC in live time as this was impossible due to the time difference.  This is to the good. 

This will be the beginning of my third year of "recent trading" I believe.  I re-opened a Schwab account January, 2009, and I began again after the professional traders/investment managers proved incompetent in the crash of 2008-09.

Lots of action each year with no net profits, with one year at break-even and one year of down $13,000.  In addition to the loss in 2011 mentioned above.

Nevertheless I do not feel badly, (I also have a growing law practice), considering the difficulties everyone has been having with the market.  Yes, a strategy of following Cramer through the whole thing would have recouped from the "losses of 2008-2009," but I didn't have any losses in 2008-2009 as I was not in the market.  My wife, however, was, and her advisors suffered along with the general market with her investments.

My trading account varied from $25,000 (first year) to $50,000, with withdrawals as a safeguard from time to time.

More and more of my trading has been "hedged," using paired trades.  And less of the spur-of-the-moment variety. 

Friday, January 6, 2012

Confessions of a Pattern Day-Trader -- Manila Trading

(c) 2012 F. Bruce Abel

My readers will have noticed that I have not posted, really, for some time.  However, having spent the last six weeks in Manila with daughter Genevieve, and having daughter Becca and her family in Barcelona, I have some peculiar insights into the difficulties and peculiarities of trading when it is day in New York but night in Manila.  Also I joined a start-up investment club in Manila with some highly-educated ADB personnel. Two of which are a husband and wife combination who play at the same level of duplicate bridge that Eunie and I play, and who got us into a delightful game on a Saturday. So most of my posts will be devoted to these circumstantial oddities, for a while.