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Friday, October 24, 2008
October 24, 2008, 8:52 am — Updated: 4:19 pm -->
United Panic
This blog was filed during the day today, with the first posts at the bottom. The American market ended the day down about 3.5%, making it one of the best performers in the world.
4:25 p.m. A Fall fall: October has one week left after today, and I would not dream of forecasting it. But in the unlikely event that prices do not move from today’s closing levels, here is how September-October will rank on the list of worst two-month periods for U.S. stock indexes.
Dow Jones industrials (1920 to 2008)
1. April-May 1932, down 39%
2. March-April 1932, down 31%
3. October-November 1929, down 30%
4. October-November 1987, down 29%
5. August-September 1931, down 29%
6. September-October 1929, down 28%
7. September-October 2008, down 27%
8. November-December 1931, down 26%
9. April-May 1931, down 25%
10. September-October 1987, down 25%
Standard & Poor’s 500 (1928-2008)
1. April-May 1932, down 39%
2. September-October 2008, down 32%
3. March-April 1932, down 30%
4. August-September 1931, down 29%
5. October-November 1987, down 28%
6. September-October 1931, down 25%
7. May-June 1932, down 24%
8. April-May 1940, down 24%
9. September-October 1929, down 24%
10. September-October 1987, down 24%
Nasdaq composite (1971-2008)
1. September-October 2008, down 34%
2. February-March 2001, down 34%
3. October-November 1987, down 31%
4. October-November 2000, down 29%
5. September-October 1987, down 29%
6. November-December 2000, down 27%
7. August-September 2001, down 26%
8. April-May 2000, down 26%
9. August-September 1990, down 21%
10. July-August 1998, down 21%
Looking at those lists gives me some comfort. Are these two months really comparable to the Depression periods of 1931 and 1932, or to the crash months of 1929? Will the economy do as badly as it did then? Is the threat to civilization comparable to the spring of 1940, when Germany conquered western Europe? Is the current period really worse for Nasdaq companies than the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 and 2001?
If the answer to those questions is no, then perhaps the selling is overdone.
3:20 p.m. Gaining Ground: With 40 minutes left, the stock market is near the top of its daily range, with the major indexes down less than 3%. If that holds, it could set a decent tone for the weekend discussions on what else, if anything, authorities should do.
3:15 p.m. Losing Money in Washington: The head of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation was called to testify before a congressional committee today about the decision to put more of the agency’s money into stocks.
As I wrote in August, doing that enabled the agency to assume it would make money in the stocks, and thus get out of the deficit it faced. The explanation for the strategy offered then is memorable:
“What we’re doing here is literally less risky,” Charles E. F. Millard, the director of the guaranty corporation, told me this week. Or as he put it in an article for Pensions and Benefit Daily, a trade publication, “The two most important facts about the new investment policy are that it significantly improves the probability the P.B.G.C. will be able to meet its obligations, and that it does so while taking less short-term and long-term risk.”
. . .
Zvi Bodie, a finance professor at Boston University who served as a consultant to the P.B.G.C. and helped write the old policy, says the fundamental flaw in a heavy reliance on stocks is that it is precisely a fall in the value of the American stock market that the agency is insuring against. Not only do pension funds own a lot of stocks — and become more likely to fail if share prices plunge — but the backup guarantee of a pension fund is the value of the equity of the company that established the pension plan.
Mr. Bodie, never one for understatement, compares the P.B.G.C. relying on stocks with an insurance company investing the proceeds from hurricane insurance premiums in Florida real estate.
Today the House Education and Labor Committee released documents showing the agency lost $4.8 billion on stocks in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30. You can bet they did not make up those losses this month.
“With the current market turmoil, we have to ask the question whether it is wise to invest our nation’s pension backstop in volatile equities,” said Representative George Miller, the committee chairman. Where was he when the new policy was being adopted?
Maybe it is too late for the agency to sell a lot of stocks. But Mr. Millard’s claims that buying stocks reduced risks seems even less reasonable than it did in August.
2:50 p.m. Close ‘Em Down:Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who had sounded warnings for years, suggested at a conference in Madrid today that governments would have to take over more financial institutions and run them, not just invest in them, before this is over.
He also said it might be necessary to close down financial markets for a week, while governments take strong action to restore confidence. I’m not sure why he thinks they can do that; heaven knows they have tried to restore confidence in every way they could think of.
2:05 p.m. Bail Out: The government-backed takeover of National City, the Cleveland bank, by PNC, calls for shareholders to receive $2.23 per share, well under Thursday’s market price of $2.75 and a tenth of what the bank was trading for a year ago.
I don’t know if PNC is getting a good or bad deal, but this takeover provides no support for share prices of other troubled banks. At least from this example, the Treasury is not going to allow owners of those banks to be very well treated.
12:45 p.m. Slipping Back: European markets closed well above their lows, but now the American market is slipping back, with both the Dow and the S.&P, down 4 percent for the day.
It is good to know that some officials have time to worry about other things. Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, has asked a court to enforce “the president’s exclusive right to his image,” Bloomberg News reports.
The president wants a company to stop selling voodoo kits complete with a Sarkozy doll and needles. “The unauthorized use of his image on a voodoo doll destined to be pricked with pins cannot be justified,” says Mr. Sarkozy’s lawyer.
If the president wins the suit, the company will have an inventory of voodoo dolls it cannot sell in France. If it decided to export them to this country, they would have to be revamped since Mr. Sarkozy is not that well known (or despised) here.
Let’s give the company some help. Whose image would you most like to see on a voodoo doll?
11:42 a.m. Growls from the Bear Cave: The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center at Bard College, when Hy Minsky used to teach, has been among the most worried — and therefore, most accurate — forecasters over the past several years.
They are out with a new forecast, which is a combination of “told ya” and “you ain’t seen nothing yet.”
Excerpts:
Our view of the next 12 months no longer appears to be unconventional, at least not on the surface. Now everybody thinks the economy is in a recession, and many think it will be long and severe. People make comparisons to the 1930s all the time. Everyone thinks consumer spending is in big trouble. Lots of people think the Fed will ease. Financial instability, a theme we harped on ad nauseam during the past three years, is now the primary economic topic of discussion.
Still, conventional wisdom leaves out much that is important about the economic situation, and it encompasses much that is wrong. . . .
Most investors, businesses, and analysts, despite their deep pessimism about the consumer outlook, will be surprised by the length and severity of the consumer pullback.
The public is starting to discover the seriousness of the state and local fiscal position, but the magnitude and fallout of the developing nonfederal government crisis will prove shocking.
Many fear that the present financial mess is setting the stage for surging Treasury yields, and most will be surprised by how low yields will fall. . . .
House prices will probably fall another 20%. . . .
The emerging market sector of the global economy is facing more than a financial crisis; it is facing a depression, which unfortunately is likely to be uncontained and severe in many countries. . . .
Lending is not going to be fixed by recapitalizing banks. The underlying problem is not just that aggregate private loans are too large relative to bank capital; it is that they are too large relative to aggregate private income. Thus, the problem is with the borrowers, not just the lenders, and households need to lower their debt relative to income while corporations need to lower their debt relative to revenue. . .
Even if the recession does end before 2010, employment will continue to decline. It is likely to fall for another year or two as downsizing and restructuring persist. The unemployment rate is likely to reach 8.5% by the end of 2009 and will be near 10% before it reverses.
Let’s hope they are wrong this time.
11:42 a.m. Rally: The Dow is down less than 200 points for the day, which means it is up 300 points from the low.
11:25 a.m. Winners and Losers: There are two companies in the S.&P. 100 that are up a bit today, EMC, the storage company, and MasterCard.
The bottom 10 in the group, all down 7 percent or more, are mostly energy or financial companies. (I haven’t mentioned today that oil is down despite OPEC’s promise to cut production. So is more or less every other commodity.)
They are, from the bottom up, AIG, National Oilwell, Schlumberger, Morgan Stanley, AES, Sprint Nextel, Merrill Lynch, United Health, ConocoPhillips and Weyerhauser.
11:15 a.m. Support?: Markets in Europe and the United States are off their lows, and there does not seem to be panic selling going on. American indexes are down around 4 percent, which is better than Europe or Asia.
11:05 a.m. Opacity and Worry: A reader asks the following in the comments below.
“How much further do we have to slide to unwind the derivatives market. Is this essentially the same as your comment on getting hedge funds out?
My reading says that the worse things get for the markets, the bigger the derivatives bubble keeps growing. If all the undercapitalized tranches, CDOs, CDSs, etc were called today, I understand that the bubble is over $500 trillion. I can’t imagine how we get out of that one unless there is a dramatic, unexpected turnaround for God knows what reason in valuations of these assets.”
Those are good questions, and I do not have good answers. The derivatives and hedge fund industries managed to keep so much out of public sight that we now can only guess.
The $500 trillion figure represents notional value, I assume. Such numbers are wildly overstated because many derivatives have maximum losses, or gains, far below the notional value.
Moreover, in the world of derivatives — unlike the worlds of stocks and bonds and C.D.O.’s — there are no net losses. Your loss is someone else’s profit. But with all the opacity, it is tempting to suspect that everyone is holding losses.
10:50 a.m. News from the Art World: Sotheby’s filed the following with the S.E.C. late yesterday.
“In October 2008, the Company held an autumn sales series in Hong Kong and a sale of Contemporary Art in London. The aggregate amount of auction guarantees related to property offered at these sales was approximately $60 million. As a result of certain of the guaranteed property failing to sell or selling for less than the minimum guaranteed price, the Company incurred a principal loss of approximately $15 million (pre-tax). The Company will recognize this loss in the third quarter of 2008 as these auction guarantees were outstanding as of September 30, 2008. As a result of the guaranteed property that failed to sell in these auctions, the Company will own inventory currently valued at approximately $11 million, which had an original mid-estimate sale price of approximately $14 million.
Subsequent to the Hong Kong and London sales discussed above and as of October 23, 2008, the Company had outstanding auction guarantees totaling $285.5 million. The Company’s financial exposure under these auction guarantees is reduced by $63.3 million as a result of risk sharing arrangements with unaffiliated partners. Substantially all of the property related to such auction guarantees is being offered at auctions in the fourth quarter of 2008. As of October 23, 2008, $81.9 million of the guaranteed amount had been advanced by the Company.
The Company’s current financial exposure under auction guarantees represents a 50% reduction from one year ago. In light of the current uncertainty in the global economy and volatility in the financial markets, the Company expects to continue to substantially reduce its use of auction guarantees until stability is restored in the global economy and financial markets.”
Guaranteeing prices will not fall appears to be a poor decision in almost every market these days.
10:40 a.m. October Blues: Here are some October performances, through a few minutes ago. In each case, I took a major index from the country in question. All figures are in U.S. dollars.
U.S., down 26%
Canada. down 37%
Mexico, down 44%
Argentina, down 43%
Brazil, down 48%
Chile, down 30%
Peru, down 42%
Britain, down 31%
Germany, down 35%
France, down 31%
Switzerland, down 20%
Italy, down 30%
Ireland, down 35%
Iceland, down 83%
Netherlands, down 35%
Belgium, down 37%
Denmark, down 35%
Finland, down 26%
Greece, down 45%
Poland, down 46%
Czech Republic, down 45%
Russia, down 53%
Hungary, down 50%
Lithuania, down 37%
Turkey, down 50%
South Africa, down 42%
Israel, down 22%
Japan, down 23%
Hong Kong, down 30%
China, down 21%
Taiwan, down 23%
South Korea, down 46%
Australia, down 34%
New Zealand, down 25%
India, down 36%
Singapore, down 35%
The variance is not that great, with the exception of poor Iceland. And remember that prices were way down from last year before October began.
You will note that the United States is among the best performers. Don’t you feel better now?
Spain, down 33%
10:20 a.m. More Home Sales: The National Association of Realtors announced that existing home sales rose last month. But no one thinks that is good news.
It appears the sales are being driven by desperate sellers, not venturesome buyers. The funny mortgages of yesteryear are forcing people out of their homes.
10:00 a.m. Why?: Here are two hypotheses on what is happening.
1. The world is finally waking up to just how bad it is, and that earnings are going to fall everywhere. Only a couple of weeks ago, some people were claiming the S.&P. 500 was trading at 12 times the next year’s earnings, even if it was around 18 times trailing earnings.
If that is the problem, then this could be nearing an end, and this panic could really mark the bottom. (Fair warning: I’ve spotted bottoms before during this bust, and been ever so wrong.)
2. This is the hedge fund devastation, as overleveraged hedge funds are forced to sell by falling prices, and then are forced to sell more because they drive prices even lower.
There are rumors around that the Fed is liquidating one hedge fund. There are also denials, so I won’t name the fund. But even if the rumor is false, it encapsulates one big worry.
If that is the explanation, this will end when the hedge funds have finally been forced out. Then the rise could be explosive.
Meanwhile, share prices are up from a few minutes ago. Down 324 on the Dow seems like good news.
9:50 a.m. World Not Over: The Dow is down 400 points now, but is is more or less stable at that level. That is a much smaller loss than they have in Europe and Japan today. Is there buying support coming in? We can hope.
9:40 a.m. Rate Cuts Coming?: Will central banks cut rates again? The lead, if it is to happen, needs to come from the places where rates are highest, in Europe. It is midafternoon in London and Frankfurt.
That is one obvious thing to try. But everyone knows that central bank easing is not spreading to those who need credit the most. How reassuring would it be.
9:28 a.m. Circuit Breakers: Not to seem negative, but here is what it would take to halt the stock exchange after it opens. These are the current version of the circuit breaker rules that were passed after the 1987 crash.
A 1,100-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. would halt trading for one hour. The halt would be 30 minutes if the number were hit between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. After that, 1,100 points would not be enough to halt trading.
A 2,200-point drop in the DJIA before 1 p.m. will halt trading for two hours. It would halt trading for one hour if it came between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m., and would end trading for the day if it came after 2 p.m.
A 3,350-point drop would halt trading for the remainder of the day, no matter when it happened.
9:15 a.m. General Electric Seeks Cash: It was yesterday that General Electric said it would borrow through the Federal Reserve’s new credit facility when it opens for business next week.
Bloomberg quotes a G.E. spokesman as follows: “This is our way to demonstrate our support for what the Fed is doing, which is providing all around liquidity.”
He may have had it backwards. This is the Fed supporting companies. It would have been more reassuring if mighty G.E. were confident it did not need government support to borrow money.
9:05 a.m. British Recession:The rout was already under way when Britain announced today that its economy was shrinking during the third quarter of the year, so we can’t blame this on the Brits.
Nonetheless, the fact the decline in G.D.P. was worse than expected helped to set the tone.
One part of the problem became clear when Alistair Darling, the chancellor of the exchequer — Britain’s fancy name for finance minister — spoke to a television interviewer for Sky News.
“We are determined to do everything we can and as soon as we can to help people,” he said. “We’ve got to work together. The credit crunch is global.”
You will note that he did not mention anything in specific that they would do. I doubt he has much idea of what he can do.
8:55 a.m. U.N. Day: The world’s markets are quaking more than I have ever seen today. Stock index futures stopped trading in the United States this morning, after they fell the daily limit for overnight trading. That is 550 points for the Dow futures, and 60 for the S.&P. futures.
The New York Stock Exchange has just said it will open for trading at 9:30 a.m., as scheduled. The fact they think it is necessary to say that is hardly encouraging.
Around the world, already low share prices have been hammered. Japan was especially hard hit, as Toyota announced sales were down and other exporters said they were running into problems as well.
What is most scary about this is that it comes after the major industrial countries pulled out all the stops to try to bail out banks and get their financial systems running again. What more tricks do they have available?
Today is the 63rd anniversary of the founding of the United Nations. That date used to be celebrated. If we had made it a holiday around the world, as some advocated, at least this would not be happening today.
As it is, the date seems somehow appropriate. It was not that long ago that many were confident about “decoupling,” in which the United States could falter but the rest of the world’s economies, particularly those in developing countries, could keep humming along.
Now it is clear we are all in this together.
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1. October 24, 2008 9:03 am Link
Those who took to heart in these times the idea of storing grain during the seven years of plenty in the story of Joseph in Egypt will rule the world.— MARK KLEIN, M.D.
2. October 24, 2008 9:04 am Link
Historically, How many times have the Stock Futures markets stopped trading?— richard
3. October 24, 2008 9:04 am Link
Another Black Friday in the making. The trouble is that no amount of alleged coordination can stop an avalanche that is in motion. The impact of this world economy with each country ricocheting off each other has never been felt before in history. We are too integrated now with communication, multi national corporate supply and financial markets. Unwinding the leverage developed over the last 15 years will take time with a lot of pain in store. There is no capitulation yet because you need to develop a base of demand that is palpable first. That world demand is in its first stage of receding.— Lawrence Diamond
4. October 24, 2008 9:14 am Link
The last 8 years of this GREED and Corporate corruption has finally taken its toll on the US and World.Me? I find myself (after losing my Airline job) now without a hard earned pension, living in China in order to survive.Let’s hope that we all wake up and start a movement to “bailout” Social Security, or the good ole US of A will certainly be a third world povety stricken country….ahh except for the crooks that produced this mess!— Michael Newbury
5. October 24, 2008 9:20 am Link
“what more” can government do?
Well the big guns were always the stimulus ideas, not the bank recapitalization.
Along with the very basic stuff of state budgets and unemployment benefits is the real stimulus — stuff like big tax credits (more than Obama’s $3000) for new private sector job creation.— halbhh
6. October 24, 2008 9:21 am Link
Voodoo Trade(Voodoo Chile (slight return), Jimi Hendrix)WilliamBanzai7
Well, I stand up next to the marketsAnd I chop em down with the edge of my hand.Well, I stand up next to the markets,Chop em down with the edge of my hand.Well, I pick up all the pieces one by one,Might even raise just a little cash.Cause Im a Voodoo Trade,Lord knows Im a Voodoo Trade, baby.
I didnt mean to take up all your sweet time,Ill give it right back to you one of these trading days.I said I didnt mean to take up all your sweet time,Ill give it right back one of these black trading days.And if I dont meet you no more in this financial worldThen ill, Ill meet you in the next one and dont be late, dont be late.Cause Im a Voodoo Trade, Voodoo Trade,Lord knows Im a Voodoo Trade, hey hey hey.Im a Voodoo Trade, baby.— williambanzai7
7. October 24, 2008 9:23 am Link
Cool Beans !!
Another Live Blogging Day from Mr. Norris !!
Always a good read and always informative !!
thanks for doing so, Mr. Norris, and thanks to the NYT for providing the platform for Mr. Norris to do so !!
All Appreciated !!— Cool Beans !!
8. October 24, 2008 9:36 am Link
So much for that July bottom of 10,500; the market will probably bottom somewhere south of 5000.For all the talk of learning from Japan, which lost 2/3 of its Market Value during the lost decade, all the money being thrown at the problem by the government will not spare US Markets a similar fate; and Japan’s Government was better positioned to intervene in their markets as their Government did not engage in profligate spending.Double Digit unemployment will soon be following; protectionism will return with a vengeance, housing prices may still have a long way to go before they bottom.It does not look good for either candidate right now as it will take far longer then 4 years to get out of this mess.There will be no income to tax and regulatory changes being proposed are the equivalent of “closing the barn door.”— Jim Kirk
9. October 24, 2008 9:56 am Link
Re: Voodoo Trade
How about:Jimi Hendrix “Will I live Tomorrow”
“Will I Trade TomorrowWell I just can’t sayWill I trade I trade tomorrowwell I just can’t saybut I know for sureI don’t trade today”
On another note the cataclysmic drop did not occur at the opening bell.On another note I did not think Natural Gas Prices could get much lower they are trading at 2002 levels now; so much for my stock picking acumen.— Jim Kirk
10. October 24, 2008 9:56 am Link
“Those who took to heart in these times the idea of storing grain during the seven years of plenty in the story of Joseph in Egypt will rule the world.— MARK KLEIN, M.D. ”Mark, I find you irritating - some didn’t have enough grain to eat, let alone store.— anna
11. October 24, 2008 9:57 am Link
I don’t see how “stabilizing” the financial markets even matters. I live in Columbus, Ohio, and people here need to have credit restored. I talked to a car dealer - 75% of his loans since 2000 were to people with bad credit. If you remove people with bad credit from the economy, there are not enough people with good credit, at least in Ohio, to keep auto plants and appliance plants open. And housing? The only way M/I Homes and Dominion Homes could sell their starter home developments was to offer no down payment, no closing cost financing because these people who want to buy homes have a job and $70 in the checking account at the end of the month. This requirement for a down payment disqualifies just about everybody in Ohio from buying a home. In short, you can either restore subprime financing or you can just shut the country down.— George C
12. October 24, 2008 10:01 am Link
Get the hedge trimmer out.— Lew from York, UK
13. October 24, 2008 10:05 am Link
close the markets idiots. and they will cool. these is a phycological illness not a real one.— jacobo lashak-korogodsky
14. October 24, 2008 10:05 am Link
I will draw your attention to my post from the other day where I predicted a world wide coordinated rate cut, to occur Monday or soon thereafter.
We would appear to be on track for a Monday cut.— Ivan
15. October 24, 2008 10:22 am Link
Just want to mention a stock worth looking into for a very short near-term profit gain is Qwest (NYSE: Q). You can look at the charts to verify the potential value. Nothing wrong with buying stocks when everyone else is selling. That’s my strategy.— Rev. Dave
16. October 24, 2008 10:23 am Link
Floyd,
You seem like such a smart guy, but really, any explosive growth is just another sign of the rampant speculation frenzy that is bringing the house of cards down.
For a correct understanding of this massive correction that will take many years to work through, we must first understand the foundation of what is going on.
1) We have built an unsustainable debtor economy. We fool ourselves by calling this leverage. If a few borrow then great but when every body borrows then head for the exits. We are perched on a mouintain of IOUs.
2) Mass of population works in jobs that do not pay the bills or barely pays the bills. Goods jobs are scarse.
3) Forever increasing costs of basic life style.
4) Dwnindling resource base + rising population.
I could go on, but the basic idea is that in this depression there will be no bottom until the fundamentals of the economy are fixed, which means a lower standard of living for everybody, higher savings and stronger family and community bonds ie people gotta take care of each other.
These so called bottoms and upward spikes are “sucker bets.”
RobertWashington, DC— Robert
17. October 24, 2008 10:25 am Link
This is the most positive thing I have to say-
Is it time to bottom fish? If it is, you may lose a more before the market is done dropping but over the next few year, you will be made rich.
And if it isn’t the time to bottom fish, then this situation represents my “end of the world” scenario and it doesn’t matter what you do- invest or not- because the world as we know it is gone.
So what do you have to lose? Not too much.If your thinking of gong fishing, here are some ideas on what to buy- http://www.greenfaucet.com/farrish-files/thinking-of-bottom-fishing/96328— Cole
18. October 24, 2008 10:25 am Link
Where’s 5 o’clock when you need it. It’s been a long week. Too long.— JB from Boston
19. October 24, 2008 10:27 am Link
To close the market is a message in it’s own.A bad one. Traders should show some guts, or do they know something we don’t?— flipperdied
20. October 24, 2008 10:31 am Link
The Sensex in Bombay was over 1000 points down.
For heaven’s sake no more Lehman style idling, can we have action NOW?
No American will pontificate about fiscal prudence for the next ten years. Enough already.— austere
21. October 24, 2008 10:32 am Link
the sky is falling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!— chicken little
22. October 24, 2008 10:33 am Link
Rate cuts and closing the markets will only keep the losses from piling up one more day. As long as people keep foreclosing on their homes this financial crisis is going to continue, and the banks are going to continue losing billions. I just saw the other day that the Fed is lending 362 billion to the banks per day to keep them afloat…this is real stuff, stuff that rate cuts and any other gimmick wont help until the real bleeding stops.— greg
23. October 24, 2008 10:34 am Link
If the markets keep on going down only 5% everyday, at least we will never hit zero.— RJ
24. October 24, 2008 10:35 am Link
re the comment:
Let’s hope that we all wake up and start a movement to “bailout” Social Security, or the good ole US of A will certainly be a third world povety stricken country
You bet’cha! I couldn’t agree more. Get to the polls and save us from McCain/Palin.— Suzie
25. October 24, 2008 10:39 am Link
This is good, the truth is good, petroleum is NONRENEWABLE, an insidious, dark black evil energy and now we are reaping–— john kenney
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