Predicting Natural Gas This Winter

Same issue every year: what to expect. Although gasoline costs are soaring, I do not believe natural gas will soar. There is plenty of natural gas in storage. Plus I believe there is a lot more LNG on line for this winter. I have not checked the February futures, which I use as a proxy for the upcoming winter. Duke files the last day or so of each month setting their rate for the coming month. So that gives no indication of what the winter cost will be. And November price is for bills received in November, so that's already historic usage -- i.e. October, in my case.

I have now checked as of the NYMEX close yesterday. $8.45 per mcf (converts to 84.5
cents per 100 cu ft). Add about 25 cents for Duke's distribution cost and we get about 110 cents, or $1.10 per ccf.

Seems incredibly low in light of the huge rise in oil prices to near $100/bbl, but that appears to be the case. Natural gas over propane, that's for sure too.

OK, take one victorian house. Figure on average 300 ccf per month over the five winter months starting November 1 and ending March 31. 1500 ccf x $1.10. Then for electric add 1500 kwh per month at $.10 per kwh (guessing at the moment) which adds an additional $150/month. You do the math for your house. $480 per month predicted, or $2400 for the heating season.

Of course that's for heating and electrifying a 3300 square foot house.